Erdington Double Murder Coincidences
Two murders, 157 years apart, in the same place—victims of the same age, found the same date, both raped and strangled, discovered at the same spot. The killers shared a surname. Coincidence or something darker?
The Erdington murders are two crimes separated by 157 years that share an uncanny number of similarities—so many that they’ve become a famous study in coincidence.
The First Murder (1817)
Mary Ashford was 20 years old when she was raped and murdered on May 27, 1817. Her body was found in a flooded pit. She was last seen at a dance. The suspect was a man named Abraham Thornton, who was acquitted.
The Second Murder (1974)
Barbara Forrest was 20 years old when she was raped and murdered on May 27, 1974. Her body was found in a flooded ditch. She was last seen near a disco. The suspect was a man named Michael Thornton, who was convicted.
The Coincidences
The parallels are striking. Both victims were the same age (20), killed on the same date (May 27), in the same location (Erdington, Birmingham). Both died from the same cause (raped and strangled), with bodies found in water. The suspects had the same surname (Thornton), and the crimes occurred 157 years apart (but with different outcomes in court).
Additional Parallels
Some claim even more coincidences. Both victims had been to dances or discos, were last seen alive at similar times, and the bodies were found at similar times the next day. The discovery locations were very close to each other.
Probability Analysis
Mathematicians have examined this case. Each coincidence has a certain probability, and combined, they seem very unlikely. But with millions of murders throughout history, some remarkable coincidences will occur.
The Law of Large Numbers
Statisticians note that given enough events, strange patterns emerge. We notice coincidences, not non-coincidences. The human mind seeks patterns. This doesn’t mean it’s not remarkable.
What It Means
The Erdington case demonstrates how coincidences can seem meaningful, the power of pattern recognition, that rare events do happen, and why we’re drawn to such stories.
Skeptical View
Critical analysis shows that some “coincidences” have been exaggerated. The surname Thornton isn’t that rare. May is a common month for crimes. We tend to ignore the many differences between the cases.
Believer View
Those who see meaning note the specificity of the parallels, the location being exactly the same, the precise date matching, and the feeling that it can’t be random.
Sources
- Historical crime records
- Studies of coincidence and probability
Two women, 157 years apart, murdered on the same date in the same place by men with the same surname. Mathematics says coincidences happen. The human heart says this means something. Perhaps both are true.