The Erdington Double Murder Coincidences

In the Birmingham suburb of Erdington, two murders separated by exactly 157 years share a list of parallels so extensive that they have been cited as among the most remarkable coincidences in criminal history. The cases of Mary Ashford (1817) and Barbara Forrest (1974) involve victims of the same age, killed on the same date, in the same location, with suspects who shared the same name and both acquitted. Whether these parallels represent meaningful pattern or mere chance remains a subject of debate.

The Murder of Mary Ashford

On May 27, 1817, Mary Ashford, a twenty-year-old domestic servant, attended a dance at the Tyburn House inn in Erdington. There she met Abraham Thornton, a local bricklayer. They were seen leaving together early in the morning.

Mary’s body was found later that morning in a flooded pit near the village. She had been raped and drowned. Physical evidence pointed to Thornton, who was arrested and charged with murder.

At trial, Thornton’s defense rested on timing. Witnesses testified they had seen Mary alive after the time Thornton claimed to have parted from her. The jury, unable to reconcile the conflicting testimony, found Thornton not guilty.

The verdict outraged the community. Mary’s brother attempted to bring Thornton to justice through an obscure legal procedure called “appeal of murder,” which allowed private prosecution and trial by combat. Thornton accepted the challenge but appealed to the King’s Bench, which ruled in his favor. He emigrated to America and was never punished.

The Murder of Barbara Forrest

On May 27, 1974—exactly 157 years later—Barbara Forrest, also twenty years old, was found murdered in Erdington. Like Mary Ashford, she had attended a dance the previous evening and was raped before being killed. Her body was found in a location remarkably close to where Mary Ashford had died.

The prime suspect was Michael Ian Thornton (no relation to Abraham). Like his namesake, he stood trial for the murder. Like Abraham Thornton 157 years before, Michael Thornton was acquitted.

The Parallels

The coincidences extend far beyond the shared surnames of the suspects:

Both victims were named Mary/Barbara, twenty years old, and died on May 27. Both attended dances the night before their deaths. Both were raped before being killed. Both were found in the same area of Erdington.

Both prime suspects were named Thornton. Both were acquitted of the charges. Both cases hinged on questions of timing and witness reliability.

Even smaller details align. Both victims had visited a friend’s house after the dance and left at approximately the same time (early morning). Both walked through the same fields on their way home.

Statistical Analysis

Researchers have attempted to calculate the probability of such parallels occurring by chance. When multiple variables are considered—the date, the age of victims, the location, the names, the acquittals—the combined probability becomes extraordinarily small.

However, statistical analysis of coincidences is notoriously tricky. If one looks at enough cases, some remarkable parallels will inevitably appear. The question is whether these particular parallels represent something meaningful or are simply the kind of clustering that occurs naturally in large data sets.

Proposed Explanations

Various explanations have been offered for the Erdington coincidences.

Pure chance: With thousands of murders occurring over centuries, some will share remarkable parallels by probability alone. The parallels seem more impressive than they are because we notice them and ignore the thousands of cases that share nothing.

Unknown connection: Some researchers have speculated that the 1974 murderer (if Thornton was innocent, someone else was guilty) might have known about the 1817 case and deliberately staged parallels. This would require considerable knowledge of local history and careful planning.

Supernatural pattern: Those inclined toward metaphysical explanations suggest the parallels indicate some form of cosmic repetition or fate—that certain events are destined to recur.

Coincidence amplification: Some parallels may have been exaggerated in retelling. The cases genuinely share some features, but other similarities may be less precise than commonly stated.

Legacy

The Erdington Double Murder has become a classic case study in discussions of coincidence. It appears in books on probability, collections of unsolved mysteries, and analyses of pattern recognition.

Both murders remain officially unsolved in terms of convictions. The acquittals leave both cases without legal closure. The parallels ensure they remain linked in public memory.

Assessment

Whether the Erdington coincidences are meaningful depends partly on one’s philosophical perspective. To a strict materialist, they are simply improbable but not impossible events requiring no special explanation. To those open to pattern and meaning in the universe, they suggest hidden connections we do not understand.

What is certain is that the parallels are real—two young women, same age, same date, same location, 157 years apart, with suspects sharing a name and both acquitted. Whether this means anything beyond the numbers is a question each observer must answer for themselves.

The Erdington cases remind us that reality sometimes produces patterns more striking than fiction, and that coincidence can be stranger than any invented mystery.