The Smiley Face Murder Theory

Since the late 1990s, over 100 young men - typically athletic, intelligent college students - have been found drowned in rivers across the Midwest and Northeast United States. Two retired NYPD detectives believe these aren’t accidents: they’ve found smiley face graffiti near many recovery sites and claim the deaths are the work of an organized serial killer network. Law enforcement officially disagrees, but the pattern continues.

The Theory

The Core Claim

Retired detectives Kevin Gannon and Anthony Duarte believe:

• Over 100 deaths are connected
• Young men are being targeted
• They’re abducted after leaving bars
• They’re killed and dumped in water
• Smiley face graffiti marks the sites
• A network of killers is responsible

The Victims

The men share characteristics:

• Young (17-27 years old)
• Male
• Typically white
• Athletic and fit
• College students or recent graduates
• Intelligent and successful
• Last seen leaving bars or parties

The Pattern

According to the theory:

• Victims are drugged
• They’re held for some period
• They’re killed
• Bodies are dumped in rivers
• Smiley face symbols are left nearby
• Deaths are ruled accidental drowning

Key Cases

Chris Jenkins (2002)

A University of Minnesota student:

• Disappeared after Halloween party in Minneapolis
• Found in the Mississippi River months later
• Initially ruled accidental
• Later reclassified as homicide
• The case that sparked the investigation

Patrick McNeill (1997)

A Fordham University student:

• Disappeared from Manhattan bar
• Found in the East River
• Ruled accidental
• Gannon and Duarte disagree

Many Others

Across the US:

• Wisconsin, Minnesota, Indiana, Ohio
• New York, Pennsylvania, Michigan
• La Crosse, Wisconsin has been a hotspot
• The pattern repeats

The Evidence

The Smiley Faces

Near body recovery sites:

• Smiley face graffiti has been found
• On bridges, walls, and structures
• Sometimes elaborate, sometimes simple
• Killers marking their work?
• Or coincidence in graffiti-covered areas?

The Clusters

Geographic patterns show:

• Cities with multiple drownings
• Along major rivers
• Near college towns
• Suggesting systematic targeting

Time of Death Questions

Forensic analysis allegedly shows:

• Bodies in water longer than missing time accounts for
• Suggesting they were held before dumping
• The decomposition doesn’t match the timeline
• Not always simple falls into water

GHB Detection

In some cases:

• Date rape drugs may have been used
• GHB breaks down quickly
• Standard tests might miss it
• Could explain witnesses seeing drunk-appearing victims

The Investigation

Gannon and Duarte

The retired detectives:

• Began investigating in 2008
• Have mapped over 100 cases
• Found smiley faces at many sites
• Believe an organized network exists
• Have faced significant opposition

Their Claims

They allege:

• The deaths are connected
• Law enforcement is wrong or covering up
• The FBI should investigate federally
• Lives could be saved with intervention

Resistance

They’ve encountered:

• Police departments dismissing their work
• The FBI declining federal investigation
• Medical examiners standing by drowning verdicts
• Media skepticism

Official Response

FBI Position

The FBI has stated:

• No evidence of serial murder
• The cases are unconnected
• Drowning is the cause of death
• The smiley faces are coincidental
• No federal investigation is warranted

Local Police

Most departments maintain:

• The deaths are tragic accidents
• Alcohol is the primary factor
• No foul play evidence exists
• The pattern is explained by demographics

Medical Examiners

Autopsies typically find:

• Drowning as cause of death
• High blood alcohol levels
• No signs of trauma
• Consistent with accidental drowning

Arguments Against the Theory

Accidental Drowning

The conventional explanation:

• Young men drink heavily
• They walk near water
• They fall in
• Cold water and alcohol are deadly
• No mystery needed

Smiley Face Ubiquity

Critics note:

• Smiley faces are everywhere
• They’re common graffiti
• Finding them near rivers isn’t significant
• Confirmation bias at work

No Physical Evidence

There is no:

• DNA from attackers
• Witness to abductions
• Captured perpetrators
• Direct evidence of murder

Statistical Argument

The numbers show:

• Accidental drowning is common
• Young men are high-risk
• Alcohol dramatically increases risk
• The pattern is explained by risk factors

Arguments For the Theory

The Demographics

Supporters note:

• The specific victim profile
• Athletic men who should survive falls
• Good swimmers drowning
• The consistency of the type

The Circumstances

Questions remain:

• How did they reach the water?
• Why no defense wounds?
• Why did no one see them fall?
• Why bodies found far from bars?

The Locations

The theory points to:

• Specific cities with multiple deaths
• Patterns that exceed statistical expectation
• Clusters that demand explanation

Time Discrepancies

In some cases:

• Bodies show longer water exposure
• Than the time they were missing
• Suggesting they were held
• Before being dumped

La Crosse, Wisconsin

A Hotspot

The small city has seen:

• Multiple young men drown
• In the same river
• Over many years
• A concentration demanding attention

Official Explanation

Police maintain:

• The bars are near the river
• Students drink heavily
• Falls are inevitable
• No connection between cases

Skeptics’ View

Investigators question:

• Why this city specifically?
• Why so many athletic men?
• Why does the pattern continue?
• Is something being missed?

What Would It Mean?

If True

The implications:

• An organized murder network
• Operating for decades
• Across multiple states
• Killing over 100 people
• Evading all detection

The Logistics

Such a network would require:

• Coordination across distances
• Consistent methodology
• Zero defectors or leaks
• Incredible organization
• Seems improbable but not impossible

The Question

Over 100 young men have drowned in American rivers.

They share a profile: young, fit, intelligent, last seen at bars.

Near where their bodies are found, someone has painted smiley faces.

Is this a serial killer network, operating openly for decades, marking their victims?

Or is this a tragic pattern of alcohol and water, where bereaved families seek meaning in coincidence?

Two retired detectives say it’s murder. The FBI says it’s not. Police departments say it’s accidents. The families want answers.

And the deaths continue.

Another college town. Another young man missing. Another body in the river.

Another smiley face on the wall?

We may never know.

The Smiley Face Murder Theory. Either one of the largest serial murder conspiracies in American history, or a desperate search for pattern in tragedy.

The truth is in the water.

Cold and dark and keeping its secrets.

Like all those rivers across America.

And all those young men who went in.

And never came out.